The World' s Population
The first fifty years of the next millennium will be critical for the world's population. By 2050 population growth should have leveled off, but by then we'll have 10 billion people--two-thirds as many again as we have today.The rate of population growth is something we can choose right now, though: it's not something that just happens, but a matter of human choice. The choice is a complicated one,with many variables, but it remains a choice.
If we want to prevent a population explosion, we should take action now -or assist the poorer countries to do so. They need better government, better institutions, better labor and capital markets, better schools.
Anything that increases the value of women's time and adds to the cost of caring for a child makes a woman less likely to have that child. Since big families are often seen as safety nets for illness and old age, improving poor people's access to insurance, pensions and welfare institutions also has a major impact. This can be as simple as rural credit, providing a means of saving. Finally, there is education--both for women and, perhaps even more important, for the next generation of children.
These steps are there to be taken, but there appear to be some countries that are not seriously trying at the moment. If we cannot achieve that we will certainly not control population.
That said, I don't feel pessimistic that we are going to run out of resources: we are becoming more efficient at producing food faster than the rate at which population is increasing. There is, however, a risk that we will wreck the environment so effectively that the world will no longer be an attractive place to live. That really would be a dismal outcome, to reach world population equilibrium only to find we'd destroyed the natural environment in the process.
世界人口
新千年的前50年對世界人口來說是至關(guān)重要的，到2050年，世界人口將趨于平穩(wěn)，但到那時，世界人口將達到100億，比現(xiàn)在多2/3。但人D增長率是我們現(xiàn)在能選擇的事：它不是順應(yīng)天意而產(chǎn)生的，而是人類的選擇。這一選擇相當復雜，有許多因素，但它依然是一種選擇。
要想避免人口爆炸，我們現(xiàn)在就應(yīng)采取行動——或者說應(yīng)幫助比較窮的國家來控制人口，因為他們需要更好的政府、機構(gòu)、勞動力及資本市場和學校。任何使一個婦女增加撫養(yǎng)孩子的時間或撫養(yǎng)孩子費用的事都使得那個婦女不太想要這個孩子。由于大家庭經(jīng)常被認為是年老生病時的安全網(wǎng)，讓窮人進一步獲得保險、退休金和福利機構(gòu)的幫助也會在控制人口生育上起重大作用。這可以像農(nóng)村信用制度那樣簡單，為人們提供一種儲蓄的手段。最后還有教育問題——既有對婦女的教育，也有更重要的對下一代的教育。
以上這些都是應(yīng)采取的措施，但看來有些國家目前并沒有認真去做，如果我們不能做到這一點，我們就不能控制人口。
及此，我對我們資源殆盡并不悲觀：我們生產(chǎn)糧食的速度超過了人口增長的速度。然而，我們也存在這樣的危險：我們會徹底毀壞環(huán)境，以致于地球?qū)⒉辉偈且粋�吸引人居住的地方。那確實是一個可悲的結(jié)果：實現(xiàn)了人口的平衡卻換來了自然環(huán)境的破壞。
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