From The Economist print edition
Why are prices soaring?
豬肉價格為何飛漲?
WHILE many China-watchers fret about the consequences of a collapse of China's stock market, Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, seems more worried about the risk of social unrest as a result of the rocketing price of pork. A 50% rise in the average nationwide price over the past year is causing squeals of alarm. Last week Mr Wen went so far as to visit a farm to show he is taking the issue seriously.
正當眾多中國觀察家為中國股市崩盤的后果不堪設想而憂心忡忡之時，溫家寶總理卻似乎更擔心暴漲的豬肉價格可能會造成社會不穩定。過去一年全國平均肉價50%的增長引起了恐慌。上周，溫先生甚至視察了一家農場，以此表明他對這一問題非常重視。
Mr Wen promised that the government would act to ensure adequate supplies of pork; if necessary, to stabilise prices it can release stocks from its strategic reserves of both frozen pork and live pigs. Pork is China's staple meat. The average person eats more pork than in any country other than Germany. But it accounts for almost 4% of China's consumer-price basket, against less than 1% in Germany. Rising pork prices could therefore push up China's inflation rate over coming months. Jiming Ha, chief economist at China International Capital Corporation, estimates that inflation will rise to 3.4% in May, from 3% in April.
溫先生承諾，政府會采取行動，確保豬肉的足量供應;如果必要，政府還可動用凍豬肉和生豬的戰略儲備來穩定肉價。豬肉是中國的主要肉食品，一般人的豬肉消費量比除德國外的任何一個國家都要多。但與德國不到1%相比，豬肉在中國占菜籃子總價近4%，。因此，未來幾個月里，上漲的豬肉價格會推動中國通脹率的上升。中國國際金融有限公司的首席經濟學家Jiming Ha估計，通貨膨脹將從4月份的3%升至5月份的3.4%。
Economists are scratching their heads to explain the price jump. Some blame it on blue-ear, a contagious disease which may have killed 18,000 or 20m pigs, depending on whom you believe. Others say the main cause is the surge in global grain prices, which have increased the cost of feed for pigs. It is not only the Chinese who are paying more for their pork. Capital Economics, a London-based economics firm, points out that American pork prices have also jumped by more than 50% over the past year.
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