Full of "two children", and will lead to a surge in the population, environmental pollution aggravate, quarterly competitive? Experts say: not! It is not be super living of the guerrillas.
Population experts, deputy director of the bureau of statistics survey center of fujian province Yao Meixiong think, open up "two children" will not result in a surge in the birth rate and population sharp rebound. , he argues, along with the advancement of industrialization, urbanization and modernization process, people's living environment, life style and attitudes are significant changes have taken place, life, employment, education, health care costs have greatly ascend, leads people to fertility intentions is reduced greatly.
Demographers, ctrip founder James liang believes that due to accumulation effect, in full liberalisation of the first couple of years after the birth, births will rebound, but limited. According to the most liberal estimates, open up the births of the highest mountain in the rebound after birth are far below the level in the early 1990 s.
全面放開“二胎”，會(huì)不會(huì)造成人口激增，環(huán)境污染加劇，競爭季度激烈?專家說啦：不會(huì)!超生游擊隊(duì)的情況是不會(huì)出現(xiàn)的。
人口專家、福建省統(tǒng)計(jì)局普查中心副主任姚美雄認(rèn)為，全面放開“二胎”不會(huì)造成出生率的猛增和人口數(shù)量的劇烈反彈。他認(rèn)為，隨著工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化及現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn),人們的生活環(huán)境、生活方式及生育觀念均發(fā)生了重大變化,生活、就業(yè)、教育、醫(yī)療的成本有了極大的提升,導(dǎo)致人們生育意愿大大降低。
人口學(xué)家、攜程網(wǎng)創(chuàng)始人梁建章認(rèn)為，由于堆積效應(yīng)，在全面放開生育后的頭幾年，出生人數(shù)會(huì)反彈，但幅度有限。根據(jù)最寬松的估計(jì)，全面放開生育后的反彈最高峰的出生人數(shù)也遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于上世紀(jì)90年代初期水平。
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